‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of cooking gas are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply isn't available," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are switching to traditional burners and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Regional Impact

In a financial hub, media reports say up to a fifth of eateries are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their gas stocks have shrunk with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials states there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of household consumers and officials say cylinders are being prioritized to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been triggered by misinformation. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports 90% of its oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.