A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
